You Will Never Have All the Information

You Will Never Have All the Information

Knowledge Publication 007
Knowledge Series 002 – Better Decisions Build Better Bakeries

How to make engineering decisions in industrial bakery projects when important information is incomplete.

Good decision-making is not about eliminating uncertainty. It is about knowing which uncertainty matters.

Executive Summary

In engineering and operations, we rarely have all the information we would like to have.

• Drawings are incomplete.
• Demand forecasts change.
• Equipment specifications are still being finalised.

And different people sometimes provide completely different numbers.

The wrong response is to guess.

But waiting until everything is known can be just as damaging. Not every unknown has the same importance.

Some missing information has very little influence on the next decision. Other information can change the production line, the building, the utilities or the entire investment.

The important questions are:

• Can the missing information change the decision?
• What happens if our assumption is wrong?
• And how difficult will the decision be to reverse later?

You will never remove all uncertainty.

The objective is to manage it.

Perfect Information Does Not Exist...

In an ideal engineering project, everything would be confirmed before work started.

• Final products.
• Confirmed production volumes.
• Complete equipment specifications.
• Final building drawings.
• Utility requirements.
• Approved budgets.
• Accurate growth forecasts.

Reality is different.

Projects start while many of these things are still developing.

That is normal.

The problem begins when we either stop the entire project because one piece of information is missing, or continue as though an unverified assumption were already a fact.

Neither is good engineering.

Connect the Missing Information to the Decision. Missing information only becomes meaningful when we connect it to a decision.

Perhaps we do not yet know the exact electrical load of one small machine.

Does that prevent us from progressing with the overall factory layout?

Probably not....

But perhaps we do not know whether the required capacity is 5,000 or 20,000 units per hour.

That is completely different.

The answer can influence:

• the production process
• equipment selection
• line configuration
• layout
• utilities
• building requirements
• labour
• investment

The question should therefore not simply be:

“What information are we missing?”

The better question is:

“Which decision depends on this information?”

If we cannot connect the missing information to a decision, it may not be critical yet.

Some Decisions Are Expensive to Reverse This is where uncertainty needs judgment.

Some decisions can be changed relatively easily.

• A preliminary equipment position may move.
• A small cable load can be corrected.
• A minor service connection can be adjusted.

Other decisions are much more difficult to reverse.

• The building column grid.
• The clear height.
• The position of an oven.
• The main electrical infrastructure.
• The refrigeration system.
• The production line itself.

Once equipment has been ordered or construction has started, changing these decisions can become extremely expensive. That means we should not treat every decision in the same way. If the consequence of being wrong is small and the decision can be corrected easily, we may be able to proceed with a clearly stated assumption.

If the consequence is significant and the decision is difficult to reverse, we need more certainty.

That is the distinction.

Do Not Stop Everything. Do Not Guess Everything.

There is nothing wrong with saying:

“We cannot decide this yet.”

Sometimes that is exactly the correct answer. But there should be a specific reason.

Not:

“We do not have all the information.”

Instead:

“We cannot finalise the oven selection until the required capacity and product range are confirmed.”

Now everybody understands:

• what information is missing
• why it matters
• which decision depends on it
• what needs to happen next

Only that decision needs to wait. The rest of the project may still be able to continue. The opposite extreme is equally dangerous.

Someone needs an answer, so a number is assumed.

The drawing continues.

The quotation goes out.

The assumption is copied into another calculation. A few weeks later, nobody remembers where the number came from. The assumption has quietly become a design fact.

That is how early uncertainty creates expensive problems later.

A Practical Bakery Expansion Example

Imagine we are developing an expansion for an existing bakery. The business expects strong growth, but the final five-year demand forecast is not yet available. Do we stop the project?

Not necessarily.

Perhaps we already understand:

• current sales
• current production
• existing line utilisation
• achievable rather than theoretical capacity
• expected product mix
• available production hours
• realistic growth scenarios

That may be enough to develop three capacity cases:

• Current requirement.
• Expected requirement.
• High-growth requirement.

We still do not know the future perfectly. But we can now see which decisions are sensitive to future demand.

• Perhaps the building should provide space for another line.
• Perhaps the utility routes should allow future expansion.
• Perhaps the electrical infrastructure needs a sensible reserve.

But that does not automatically mean the production line itself should be oversized today. We can protect future options without investing in unnecessary capacity now. That is a much better response to uncertainty than either stopping the project or selecting equipment based on one unverified forecast.

Use Ranges Where Precision Does Not Yet Exist Engineering sometimes creates false confidence by using precise numbers too early.

A spreadsheet may show: 12,437 units per hour.

It looks accurate. But if the underlying demand forecast is uncertain by 20%, that precision means very little. In an early project stage, a range may be more honest and more useful.

• 10,000 to 12,000 units per hour.
• 18 to 22 production hours.
• 15 to 20% expected growth.

The range shows the real level of confidence. It also allows us to test whether a decision still works under different conditions. As the project develops, more information becomes available and the range becomes smaller. Eventually we reach the point where the final decision can be made. Precision should follow certainty. It should not pretend to create it. An Assumption Needs More Than a Label Assumptions are sometimes unavoidable.

That is not the problem.

The problem is an assumption that has no owner, no consequence and no deadline for verification.

Whenever an important assumption is used, I believe we should record:

• what is being assumed
• why the assumption is reasonable for now
• which decisions depend on it
• what happens if it is wrong
• who needs to verify it
• when it must be confirmed

An engineering project should not stop simply because one input is missing.

But the missing information should never be hidden or quietly replaced with false certainty.

We need to make the difference visible.

• What is confirmed.
• What has been calculated.
• What has been assumed.
• What still needs verification.

And most importantly:

"Which decisions are affected?"

That is how an assumption remains visible. And visible assumptions can be managed.

Ask What Happens If We Are Wrong.

This is one of the most useful questions in engineering:

"What happens if this assumption is wrong?"

If the consequence is small, we may be able to proceed. If the correction is simple, we may be able to proceed. If the decision remains easy to reverse, we may be able to proceed.

But if being wrong means changing the building, buying the wrong production line, losing required capacity or adding significant cost, we need more certainty first.

Not every assumption deserves the same amount of attention. Focus on the assumptions that can materially change the outcome.

What Needs to Change

When information is incomplete, do not immediately stop the project.

And do not guess your way through it either.

Ask three questions:

• Can the missing information materially change the decision?
• What is the consequence if our assumption is wrong?
• How difficult or expensive will the decision be to reverse?

Then decide what can continue and what genuinely needs to wait. Record the assumption.

Make the consequence visible.

Give the verification an owner. And protect the decisions that will be difficult to change later.

Closing

You will never have all the information.

Not in engineering. Not in operations. And certainly not at the beginning of a project.

The objective is not to remove every unknown before moving forward.

The objective is to understand which unknowns matter.

Proceed where the consequences are controlled. Wait where the decision cannot safely be reversed. And never allow an assumption to quietly become a fact.

Good decision-making is not about eliminating uncertainty. It is about knowing which uncertainty matters.

Bakery Expert Perspective

Uncertainty should not be hidden. But it should also not be used as a reason to stop an entire project.

Connect the missing information to the decision.

Understand the consequence of being wrong.

Protect the decisions that are expensive to reverse.

Record assumptions clearly and make sure somebody is responsible for verifying them.

That is not perfect certainty. It is disciplined engineering.

Key Takeaways

Perfect information rarely exists in real engineering projects. Not every unknown should stop the project. Connect missing information to the decision it can affect. Give more attention to decisions that are expensive or difficult to reverse. Use ranges where precise information does not yet exist. Protect future options without automatically oversizing today’s investment. Record why an assumption was used and which decisions depend on it. Give important assumptions an owner and a verification date. Ask what happens if the assumption is wrong. Good engineering manages uncertainty instead of hiding it.

Knowledge Series 002 – Better Decisions Build Better Bakeries

This publication forms part of Knowledge Series 002 – Better Decisions Build Better Bakeries, exploring the operational thinking behind successful industrial bakery and food-manufacturing operations.

Previous publication:
Complexity Is Not the Problem. Poor Structure Is. https://www.bakery-expert.com/insights/knowledge-series-002-better-decisions-build-better-bakeries

Next publication:
Don’t Automate a Process You Don’t Control.