Complexity Is Not the Problem. Poor Structure Is.

Complexity Is Not the Problem. Poor Structure Is.

When a bakery project becomes complicated, the natural reaction is often to add more.

• More meetings.
• More people.
• More spreadsheets.
• More drawings.
• More information.

And very quickly, nobody has a clear overview anymore.

I don’t believe complexity itself is the problem.

Industrial bakery projects are complex.

The problem starts when that complexity is not properly structured.

One Big Problem Is Difficult to Solve

Imagine you want to build a new bakery.

Where do you start?

• Equipment?
• Building?
• Layout?
• Capacity?
• Products?
• Utilities?
• Automation?
• Investment?

All of them are important.

And all of them are connected.

That is exactly why trying to solve “the new bakery” as one problem does not work.

You need to break it down.

I normally start looking at it in smaller pieces:

• What is the business trying to achieve?
• Which products do we want to produce?
• What capacity do we actually need?
• Which process do we need?
• What equipment supports that process?
• What utilities are required?
• What does the building need to provide?
• How will the operation work?
• How will we control it?

Now we are no longer trying to solve one enormous problem.

We are solving a series of smaller ones.

And that is much easier.

But the Order Matters

This is where projects regularly go wrong.

You cannot answer these questions randomly.

Let’s say you believe you need another production line.

You start talking to suppliers.

You receive quotations.

Someone starts working on a layout.

Electrical loads are calculated.

Building requirements are discussed.

But have we actually established how much additional capacity is required?

If not, we are already engineering based on an assumption.

And perhaps we should go one step further.

Why do we need the additional capacity?

Is demand increasing?

Are we really short of installed capacity?

Or are we losing too much of the capacity we already have?

Those are completely different problems.

And they require completely different solutions.

This is why the order matters.

One Assumption Quickly Becomes Ten

This is something I see regularly.

An assumption is made early in a project.

It seems harmless.

So everybody continues.

But every decision after that starts using the same assumption.

Assume the wrong capacity and you may select the wrong equipment.

Select the wrong equipment and your layout changes.

Then your electrical load changes.

Your cooling requirements change.

Your building requirements change.

And ultimately your investment changes.

Suddenly one assumption has influenced a large part of the project.

That is why I believe assumptions need to be challenged early.

The further you take them into a project, the more expensive they become.

More Information Is Not Always the Answer

Another common reaction to complexity is asking for more information.

And sometimes we need it.

But more information does not automatically give us more clarity.

You can have hundreds of drawings, quotations, calculations and spreadsheets and still not know what decision you are trying to make.

For me, the better question is:

What do we need this information for?

Which decision does it support?

If we cannot answer that, perhaps we don’t need the information yet.

Or perhaps we are asking the wrong question.

Break It Down Until It Becomes Manageable

This is really the principle.

When a problem looks too big, don’t try to solve the whole thing.

Break it down.

What do we know?

What don’t we know?

What can we calculate?

What do we need to verify?

Which decision needs to be made first?

And which decisions can wait?

Suddenly the project starts becoming clearer.

Not because the complexity disappeared.

The bakery is still just as complex.

But now the complexity has structure.

This Also Prevents Unnecessary Delays

There is another side to this.

Poor structure doesn’t only cause bad decisions.

It can also stop projects unnecessarily.

Teams sometimes wait for every piece of information before making any decision.

That is not always necessary.

If the problem is properly structured, we can identify:

• what we know
• what we can reasonably derive
• what still needs to be confirmed
• what is critical
• what is not critical yet

Some decisions can already be made.

Others need to wait.

That allows the project to keep moving without making irresponsible assumptions.

What Needs to Change

When a project starts becoming difficult to manage, don’t immediately add another meeting or another spreadsheet.

First ask whether the problem is properly structured.

What are we actually trying to achieve?

What are the individual decisions we need to make?

Which decision comes first?

What information do we need for that decision?

What assumptions are we making?

What can we already decide?

That is where clarity starts.

Closing

Complexity is part of engineering.

We should not be afraid of it.

But we also should not allow it to control the project.

Break the problem into smaller pieces.

Understand how those pieces influence each other.

Put the decisions in the right order.

Then deal with them one by one.

That is how a very complicated project becomes manageable.

Complexity is not the problem. Poor structure is.

Bakery Expert Perspective

Good engineering does not remove complexity.

It gives complexity structure.

And once a problem has structure, it becomes much easier to understand what we know, what we don’t know and what decision needs to be made next.

That is often the difference between a project that feels overwhelming and one that can simply be worked through.

Key Takeaways

• Don’t try to solve a complex project as one problem.
• Break it into smaller, manageable decisions.
• Make those decisions in the right order.
• Challenge assumptions early.
• Don’t collect information without knowing which decision it supports.
• Separate what is known, what can be derived and what still needs to be verified.
• When the project becomes confusing, go back to the structure.

Knowledge Series 002; Better Decisions Build Better Bakeries

This publication forms part of Knowledge Series 002 Better Decisions Build Better Bakeries, exploring the operational thinking behind successful industrial bakery and food manufacturing operations.